Nebraska 2023 predictions: Dylan Raiola commits? Jeff Sims takes over at QB?

LINCOLN, Neb. — It’s the eve of New Year’s Eve. Time for my annual predictions about the year ahead in Nebraska football.

First, let’s review. A few items on my forecast for 2022 missed the mark — but not by much.

I predicted that the sellout streak would end at Memorial Stadium. It survived, reaching 389 games, but only after donors stepped up to fill the void. One supporter purchased more than 2,000 tickets at a bulk rate of $10 per seat.

I predicted that Nebraska would land no higher than sixth among Big Ten West teams in the preseason media poll. It came in at fifth (and finished sixth).

In looking into my crystal ball for 2023, I’ll aim to do better than the 6-for-10 that I hit in each of the past two calendar years. Really, though, this is about the intrigue of a fresh beginning. Nebraska, in the 12 months ahead, will write chapters in a new era, led by coach Matt Rhule, who’s delivered a much-needed dose of positive energy during his first five weeks on the job.

As usual, I’ll save my picks on the wins and losses for later, when the roster is set.

A new year’s toast: to the future and all that it holds. On with the predictions.

1. Dylan Raiola will headline Nebraska’s 2024 recruiting class.

Before the start of spring practice in March, Rhule will land the biggest of big fish. The new coach and his staffers kicked off the #24Ours campaign on social media on the same day that they signed their first group of newcomers.

#NewProfilePic pic.twitter.com/4fhOBZ5Laq

— Matt Rhule (@CoachMattRhule) December 22, 2022

Is it coincidental that the player in Rhule’s profile picture wears No. 1, the same jersey that Raiola dons at Chandler (Ariz.) High School? Raiola, a 6-foot-3 quarterback and the No. 1-rated prospect in the Class of 2024, decommitted from Ohio State in December. Immediately, much of the public focus turned to Nebraska, which employs his uncle, offensive line coach Donovan Raiola, and long ago retired the No. 54 jersey of Dylan’s father, former All-America center Dominic Raiola.

The Huskers are up against the likes of Alabama, Georgia and USC to get Raiola. But this is no normal fight. Raiola’s ties to past and current Nebraska regimes run deep. His pledge would gain notice with prospects nationally and elevate the Huskers’ recruiting profile as Rhule attempts to build a program-changing class.

2. The Huskers will add a key pledge for 2023 in the first week of January and push hard into Texas in the months ahead.

Four-star edge rusher Cameron Lenhardt is set to make his commitment known Tuesday night during televised coverage on ESPN of the Under Armour All-America Game. Look for him to join the Huskers as a 22nd addition out of high school or junior college. Lenhardt, from IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla., would fit as the third-highest rated signee for Nebraska. He committed to the Huskers in August and decommitted a month later after the firing of coach Scott Frost.

Three-star DB Ethan Nation of Roswell, Ga., is also considering Nebraska ahead of his Under Armour announcement.

Nation or Lenhardt could bump the Huskers a spot or two from their national rank of 28th for this group. The most notable bump from the 2023 class, though, is set to involve Nebraska’s renewed efforts to recruit in the state of Texas.

Not since the Huskers left the Big 12 in 2011 have they committed as much energy to Texas as looks underway already with Rhule. The Nebraska coach established strong Texas connections in his three years at Baylor. He’s scouring the state for talent, evident by late adds to the 2023 class of edge rusher Princewill Umanmielen and wide receiver Brice Turner. There’s more to follow.

3. Nebraska will lose a few players before the transfer portal closes in January — and more in May.

With the exception of linebacker Ernest Hausmann, who transferred to Michigan, the portal losses for Nebraska so far have ranked as minor. Defensive back Jaeden Gould, now at Syracuse, showed promise and rated as a top signee a year ago. But he redshirted in 2022, and the Huskers do not lack depth in the secondary.

An unofficial scholarship count of returning players stands at 63. With 21 signees and seven transfers secured, the Huskers already need to drop about a half-dozen players from the roster by August. As more newcomers join, that number will rise. But it’s manageable.

Expect some attrition before the Jan. 23 start of the spring semester. The winter deadline to enter the portal is Jan. 18. (Players in the portal can join new programs at any time.) Another entry window of two weeks, sure to entice several Huskers after spring practice, opens May 1.

4. Two of Rhule’s remaining hires will come from the NFL. One will not.

Left to hire for Nebraska’s on-field coaching staff are jobs to direct the tight ends, linebackers and wide receivers.

Several Nebraska signees were told of Rhule’s plan to hire a wide receivers coach, but they were ordered to keep it quiet. Signs point to the NFL. Keep an eye after the Jan. 8 conclusion of the regular season on Frisman Jackson, wide receivers coach for the Steelers. He coached for Rhule with the Panthers and at Baylor. Another Rhule connection involves Drew Terrell, who coaches the position for the Commanders.

At linebacker, it could be Rob Dvoracek, a Panthers defensive assistant who played at Temple and coached for Rhule at the school.

The tight ends job remains more of a wild card. Might Rhule look to hire a high school coach? It worked at Baylor as he launched the college coaching career of Joey McGuire, the newly extended leader at Texas Tech who beat Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl this week.

5. Jeff Sims will earn the edge to start at quarterback as Casey Thompson and Logan Smothers sit through spring practice.

In his comments on signing day, Rhule lathered Sims with praise and talked conservatively about Thompson. Maybe it was nothing. Or maybe the Georgia Tech transfer, before he lifts a weight in Lincoln, owns an edge over Thompson, Nebraska’s 10-game starter in 2022, and the rest of the still-returning Huskers.

This much is clear: Sims, at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, with two years of eligibility and excellent athleticism, looks like a strong fit for the Huskers’ new system. Yes, Sims threw 23 interceptions in three seasons at Georgia Tech. But 13 came in 2020, when he started as a true freshman.

He’s developed as a passer over the past two years. A change in scenery appears set to suit him well. And with Thompson and Smothers on the mend from postseason operations, the chance exists for Sims to take a lead into the summer.

Bonus prediction: Two quarterbacks from the five on scholarship will enter the portal before May 15.

6. Nebraska will exceed its total of three players from last year in the NFL Draft.

Let it be known that I predicted three Huskers to land in the first four rounds of the 2022 NFL Draft. It turned out to be two. Center Cam Jurgens and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt were selected in the second round — a big Day 2 for the Huskers, who hadn’t produced a duo drafted so high since 2015.

Wide receiver Samori Toure lasted until in the seventh round as the final Nebraska product.

I missed on linebacker JoJo Domann, who went undrafted but has made his mark with the Colts as a free-agent signee.

Domann is an interesting study. He was 24 at the time of the draft in April. Edge rusher Garrett Nelson, who started his final 32 games at Nebraska and recently declared for the draft with one season of remaining eligibility, will be 23 in March. Nelson perhaps didn’t want to end up like Domann, two years later in 2024.

In a short amount of time I've come to respect ⁦@gnelson763⁩ for who he is, what he means to Nebraska, and what he means to the Huskers, #OOU #GBR pic.twitter.com/f3rrZFNse2

— Matt Rhule (@CoachMattRhule) December 28, 2022

Though something of a tweener, Nelson will get picked. From the group that includes him, wide receiver Trey Palmer, defensive ends Ochaun Mathis and Caleb Tannor and tight end Travis Vokolek, put me down for four draftees in 2023.

7. Thomas Fidone and Teddy Prochazka will realize their potential.

More specifically, both will start and avoid serious injuries. Fidone and Prochazka, cornerstone signees in the 2021 class, endured setback after setback in their first two years on campus. For Fidone, a pair of knee injuries suffered in 2021 and 2022 spring practice sessions kept the tight end out of all but one game.

Prochazka started at left tackle for Nebraska as a true freshman, but two season-ending injuries cut short his time on the field.

Nothing about their shared college experience, which started as recruits amid the height of a pandemic, has rated as normal. If healthy, they’re key pieces in the Huskers’ offensive rebuild. Rest assured, offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield would love a rangy, 6-6 tight end with freakish athleticism and a tackle with Prochazka’s size and skill.

8. The walk-on program will get a new look.

Rhule isn’t doing away with this giant piece of the Nebraska tradition. After all, he was a walk-on linebacker for Joe Paterno at Penn State in the 1990s. Rhule recognizes the importance of opportunities provided to players without scholarships. And in the NIL era, new paths exist to help reward players who contribute.

Nebraska will have the room in its new facility, opening in July, to house 150 players. Still, the roster is likely to trend down in size. The Huskers announced four walk-ons among their 2023 newcomers. The class might grow slightly in size. But with Rhule, the focus for walk-ons is more about quality than quantity.

9. The Blackshirts will get a facelift.

This isn’t your father’s Nebraska defense. New defensive coordinator Tony White is set to bring a new vibe. Whether the defense is identifiable as a 3-3-5 alignment, the system in which he was schooled, or some variation, Nebraska will play with a new kind of style.

And it will feature a new cast of talent after losing the likes of Nelson, Mathis, Tannor, Hausmann and lineman Colton Feist. Just five scholarship players with experience on the D-line return. Nebraska needs a contribution from Texas A&M transfer Elijah Jeudy and other newcomers.

As for the Blackshirt tradition, White is learning.

“Wearing the N on your helmet, the nameplate on the back of your jersey,” he said in an interview with the Huskers Radio Network, “if you’re not juiced up and you’re not lively and you don’t play with spirit, you’re just not going to play here.”

10. Nebraska fans will show up by the thousands for season-opening trips to Minnesota and Colorado.

Here’s a fact to drop at your New Year’s Eve party: Just two permanent head coaches out of the past 13 at Nebraska, covering 80 years, opened on the road: Bernie Masterson in 1946 and Adolph Lewandowski in 1943. Both lost big. Both games were played at Minnesota, where Rhule and the Huskers are scheduled to open on Aug. 31.

From there, the Huskers visit Colorado on Sept. 9, marking the first season since 1995 that Nebraska has started with two consecutive road games.

The lack of early action at Memorial Stadium won’t keep Nebraska fans from seeing their new coach and team in 2023.

(Photo of Braxton Clark and Casey Thompson: Matthew Holst / Getty Images)

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